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BASIC RESEARCH
Continuously Variable Rating: a new, simple and logical procedure to evaluate original scientific publications
Mauricio Rocha e Silva
Corresponding author
mauricio.silva@pobox.com

Tel.: 55 11 2661-6235
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    "textoCompleto" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSections"><span id="cesec10" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="cestitle50">INTRODUCTION</span><p id="para10" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">It is universally acknowledged in the realm of Scientometrics that Impact Factors &#40;IF&#41; reflect&#44; albeit imperfectly&#44; the importance of scientific journals&#44; but come nowhere near evaluating the individual research articles published therein&#46; The discrepancy stems from a well-known fact&#58; distribution of citations amongst authors is skewed for the vast majority of periodicals&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib1">1</a> At first sight&#44; it might be tempting to suppose that peer review would be an antidote against asymmetry&#46; A reasonable corollary would then follow&#58; the higher and mightier the journal&#44; the more stringently selected the published science&#44; the less skewed the citation distribution might be&#46; In other words&#44; peer review and a high level of rejection might defeat the Pareto principle&#44; also known as the 80&#47;20 rule which states that for most human driven events&#44; 80&#37; of actions come from 20&#37; of agents&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib2">2</a> If peer review and stringent selection were an effective antidote one might expect that articles published in the most prestigious journals would attain a more symmetrical distribution of citations&#46;</p><p id="para20" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">To test these ideas&#44; I collected data from 60 journals listed in the ISI Journal Citations Report 2010&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib3">3</a> All journals were retrieved from Subject Categories with a direct interest to Medicine&#44; at nine different Impact Factor points&#46; Medicine was chosen because of the direct interest to a medical journal&#44; but also to ensure a homogeneous collection of journals from the point of view of inherent citation strength&#46; The result of this analysis prompted me to define and launch a new concept of article evaluation which can be made effective through relatively simple arithmetic computer programs&#46;</p></span><span id="cesec20" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="cestitle60">METHOD</span><p id="para30" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Three separate procedures were performed&#46;</p><p id="para40" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleBold">&#40;a&#41; <span class="elsevierStyleUnderline">Analysis of symmetry</span></span>&#46; Journals classified under medically related &#8220;Subject Categories&#8221; clustered around nine different Impact Factor points were selected from the 2010 Journal Citation Reports&#46; <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig1">Figure 1</a> illustrates the general content of these groupings&#46; The following exclusion criteria were adopted&#58; &#40;i&#41; Review Journals&#59; &#40;ii&#41; Journals with very small numbers of citable items&#44; to reduce the chance of a deviant&#44; extremely well cited individual article deforming the total result&#59; &#40;iii&#41; Journals with very large numbers of citable items&#44; to reduce potential mistakes associated with hand picking&#46; All citable items &#40;original research and review articles&#41; published during the year 2008 were retrieved from the Tables provided under the Cited Reference Search heading of ISI-THOMSON Web of Sciences site posted during the first week of July&#44; 2011&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib4">4</a> An excel table was compiled for each journal to include all the posted data&#46; A &#8220;clean&#8221; excel spread sheet was derived therefrom as follows&#58; &#40;a&#41; obviously identifiable duplicate citation entries were merged together&#44; &#40;b&#41; doubtful entries &#40;no Article ID&#44; no &#8220;View Record&#8221;&#41;&#44; editorial material and other non-citable items were excluded&#44; &#40;c&#41; misquotes were discarded&#46; This &#8220;clean&#8221; database for each journal contained all granted citations obtained by each article within the window stretching from Jan&#47;2008 to Jun&#47;2011&#46; An estimate of citations&#47;year was obtained based on the following assumptions&#58;<ul class="elsevierStyleList" id="celist10"><li class="elsevierStyleListItem" id="celistitem10"><span class="elsevierStyleLabel">1&#46;</span><p id="para50" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">On harvest week&#44; the &#8220;oldest&#8221; papers were 42 months old &#40;01&#47;01&#47;2008 &#8211; dd&#47;mm&#47;yyyy - to 01&#47;07&#47;2011&#41;&#59; the &#8220;newest&#8221; 30 months old &#40;31&#47;12&#47;08 to 01&#47;07&#47;2011&#41;&#59; assuming a steady flow of articles through the year&#44; the average article &#8220;age&#8221; of each article is 36 months&#46;</p></li><li class="elsevierStyleListItem" id="celistitem20"><span class="elsevierStyleLabel">2&#46;</span><p id="para60" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">A six months latency between publication and first cites was assumed&#44; as suggested by Eugene Garfield is his classical 2004 lecture&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib1">1</a> Thus the collection had an average citation window of 30 months&#46;</p></li><li class="elsevierStyleListItem" id="celistitem30"><span class="elsevierStyleLabel">3&#46;</span><p id="para70" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The total number of cites&#47;article was therefore divided by 2&#46;5&#59; this was assumed as a cites&#47;year reading for the life of these articles&#46;</p></li></ul></p><elsevierMultimedia ident="fig1"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="para80" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Each excel table was reordered by decreasing number of cites&#47;year&#46; Frequency distribution of cites per article&#44; normalized cumulative cites and absolute cites&#47;decile of distribution were determined for all articles within each Journal cluster&#46;</p><p id="para90" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleBold">&#40;b&#41; <span class="elsevierStyleUnderline">Determination of Positive Predictive Value</span></span>&#46; The use of the Impact Factor of a journal as a surrogate for evaluating the citability of articles published therein was evaluated by applying the concept of Positive Predictive Value to the procedure&#46; The Positive Predictive Value of a diagnostic procedure&#44; also known as its Precision Rate<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib2">2</a> is given by the following relation <elsevierMultimedia ident="f10"></elsevierMultimedia></p><p id="para100" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">To determine PPV&#44; three arbitrarily established journal classes were generated&#58; a LOW class &#40;IF<span class="elsevierStyleInf">LOW</span>&#41; comprising journals with an Impact Factor such that 1&#46;3&#8804;IF<span class="elsevierStyleInf">LOW</span>&#60;2&#46;6&#59; a MID class &#40;IF<span class="elsevierStyleInf">MID</span>&#41; containing journals satisfying the relation 2&#46;6&#8804;IF<span class="elsevierStyleInf">MID</span>&#60;3&#46;9&#59; a HIGH class with IF<span class="elsevierStyleInf">HIGH</span>&#8805;3&#46;9&#46; Positive Predictive Value was determined for journal clusters within each classification class range as follows&#58; an article published in a journal within a given classification class was deemed a True Positive if it was granted N cites&#47;year&#44; N being comprised within the class boundaries&#59; it was deemed a False Positive if this condition was not met&#46; To exemplify&#44; an article published in a HIGH class journal is a true positive if it is granted 3&#46;9 or more cited per year&#44; whereas an article published in a mid class journal is a true positive if it is granted 2&#46;6 or more AND less that 3&#46;9 cites&#47;year&#46; <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig1">Figure 1</a> illustrates the class boundaries and the positions of Journal Clusters with respect to class boundaries&#46;</p><p id="para110" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleBold">&#40;c&#41; <span class="elsevierStyleUnderline">Continuously Variable Rating &#40;CVR&#41;</span></span>&#46; A new system is proposed that allows the rating of individually published articles in comparison to all articles published by the same journal within the same year&#46; Data for calculating this parameter are readily available in the Half-life tables of ISI-THOMSON Journal Citations Report&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib3">3</a> Half-life Tables cover a ten year span&#46;</p><p id="para120" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall"><a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl1">Table 1</a> exhibits the data required for the calculation of CVR of an article published in journal &#8220;J&#8221;&#58;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="tbl1"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="para130" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">If an article &#8220;A&#8221; was published in Year &#8220;n&#8221; its CVR for Year Zero is given by the relation&#58;<elsevierMultimedia ident="f20"></elsevierMultimedia></p><p id="para140" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Where</p><p id="para150" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">IF<span class="elsevierStyleInf">J0</span> is the Impact Factor of Journal &#8220;J&#8221; in the Year Zero&#59;</p><p id="para160" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">GC<span class="elsevierStyleInf">An</span> is the number of cites granted in year zero to article &#8220;A&#8221; &#40;published in Year n&#41;&#46;</p><p id="para170" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">&#931;AA<span class="elsevierStyleInf">n</span> and &#931;GC<span class="elsevierStyleInf">n</span> are defined in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl2">Table 2</a>&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="tbl2"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="para180" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Two features of CVR should be noted&#58;<ul class="elsevierStyleList" id="celist20"><li class="elsevierStyleListItem" id="celistitem40"><span class="elsevierStyleLabel">1&#46;</span><p id="para190" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Year Zero is mobile&#44; so that CVR<span class="elsevierStyleInf">A0</span> can be recalculated on a yearly basis&#59;</p></li><li class="elsevierStyleListItem" id="celistitem50"><span class="elsevierStyleLabel">2&#46;</span><p id="para200" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Year &#8220;n&#8221; can be any year from zero backwards to &#8220;-9&#8221;&#44; so that articles published within a ten-year interval&#44; including those published in Year Zero can be evaluated&#46;</p></li></ul></p><p id="para210" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The general guiding lines for the construction of a totally dedicated software program may be deducted from the supplied algorithm&#46;</p></span><span id="cesec30" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="cestitle70">RESULTS</span><p id="para220" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleBold">&#40;a&#41; <span class="elsevierStyleUnderline">Analysis of Symmetry</span></span>&#46; <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl2">Table 2</a> compares the calculated cites&#47;year parameter as described above for the three major journal clusters to their respective mean 2010 Impact Factors&#58; no significant differences occur for any of the three levels&#46; This result validates the use of this procedure to evaluate citations to articles over these first three years of their published life&#58; consequently all data transformed in this manner shall be referred to as cites&#47;year&#46;</p><p id="para230" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall"><a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig2">Figure 2</a> plots frequency distribution of cites&#47;year for three journal clusters &#40;impact factors 1&#46;8&#44; 3&#46;1 and 4&#46;3&#41;&#46; As expected&#44; distribution shifts gradually leftward as Impact Factor increases but no symmetry is apparent for any of the clusters&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="fig2"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="para240" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall"><a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig3">Figure 3A</a> shows normalized cumulative citations for each decile&#44; from one &#40;highest&#41; to ten for each of the three major clusters&#58; the 20&#37; most cited papers collect 50&#37; of cites&#46; In contrast&#44; the bottom 50&#37; are left with no more than 20&#37; of cites&#46; The lower 20&#37; of papers add only 3&#37; to the total&#46; The same applies to smaller samples of higher impact and even to extremely high Impact Factor Journals such as the New England Journal of Medicine&#44; with an Impact Factor of 53&#46;49 in 2010&#46; If anything&#44; the distribution for the New England Journal of Medicine is slightly more skewed than the average&#46; <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig3">Figure 3B</a> represents theoretical Pareto cumulative distributions for three different values of K&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib5">5</a> Cumulative citations lie between K1 and K2 values&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="fig3"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="para250" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall"><a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig4">Figure 4</a> displays distributions of individual articles within the journals in the three major clusters&#46; As expected&#44; citations&#47;year is a strict function of Impact Factor&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="fig4"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="para260" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleBold">&#40;b&#41;</span><span class="elsevierStyleBold"><span class="elsevierStyleUnderline">Positive Predictive Value &#40;PPV&#41;</span></span>&#46; The use of the Impact Factor of journals as a surrogate measure of the impact Factor was tested for the three arbitrarily selected classification groups&#46;</p><p id="para270" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">PPV for the HIGH Impact Factor Class &#40;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig5">Fig&#46; 5</a>&#41;&#46; For articles published in journals with IF&#8805;3&#46;9&#44; a cutoff value of 3&#46;9 cites&#47;year was used to define PPV&#58; true positives for the HIGH group are all articles with &#40;cites&#47;year&#8805;3&#46;9&#41;&#46; Conversely&#44; articles with &#40;cites&#47;year&#60;3&#46;9&#41; are False Positives&#46; When data from the Major Cluster IF &#61; 4&#46;3 are analyzed&#44; True Positives represent 43&#37; of the sample of 3&#44;170 articles&#44; 57&#37; being False Positives&#46; All False Positives are articles upgraded into this class&#46; Thus for this cluster&#44; PPV &#61; 0&#46;43&#59; As might be logically expected&#44; journals in cluster 3&#46;9&#44; have a lower PPV &#40;0&#46;28&#41;&#44; while the three high clusters &#40;IF 6&#46;0&#44; 8&#46;0 and 10&#46;0&#41; exhibit progressively increasing PPVs&#44; which tend to 1&#46;00 in the latter group&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="fig5"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="para280" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">PPV for the MID Impact Factor Class &#40;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig5">Fig&#46; 5</a>&#41;&#46; The boundaries of this class are IF 2&#46;6 &#40;lower&#41; and 3&#46;9 &#40;higher&#41;&#46; Consequently articles published in Journals within this class exhibiting the adequate number of granted cites&#47;year are True Positives&#44; whereas all others are False Positives&#46; At the mid-point of this class&#44; &#40;Major Cluster IF &#61; 3&#46;1&#41; PPV equals 0&#46;24&#46; False Positives are &#40;a&#41; upgraded with cites&#47;yr &#60;2&#46;6&#44; representing 49&#37; of the collection&#44; &#40;b&#41; downgraded with cites&#47;yr&#8805;3&#46;9&#44; 27&#37; of the articles&#46; Sitting between LOW and HIGH&#44; this group has very different properties from the HIGH group&#44; as shown in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig5">Figure 5&#58;</a> moving from the lower to the higher boundary has very little effect on the PPV&#58; at the lower boundary&#44; upgraded False Positives are maximal&#44; while downgraded ones are minimal&#59; at the upper border&#44; the opposite happens&#46;</p><p id="para290" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">PPV for the LOW Impact Class &#40;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig5">Fig&#46; 5</a>&#41;&#46; Any journal within the boundaries Impact Factor 1&#46;3 to 2&#46;6 is a LOW journal&#46; Articles published therein are True Positives with cites&#47;year between 1&#46;3 and 2&#46;6&#44; but False Positives otherwise&#46; At the mid-point of this class &#40;Cluster IF &#61; 1&#46;84&#41; PPV &#61; 0&#46;28&#46; False Positives come in three categories&#58; &#40;a&#41; 39&#37; of overrated articles&#44; with less than 1&#46;3 cites&#47;year&#59; &#40;b&#41; 18&#37; underrated articles which truly belong in the MID class&#59; &#40;c&#41;&#58; 15&#37; underrated articles which truly belong in the HIGH class&#46; As occurs with the MID class&#44; and for the same reasons&#44; PPV here is low and fairly constant throughout the class&#46;</p><p id="para300" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Continuously Variable Rating is best explained through an example&#46; Data from the half-life tables published by Journal of Citations Report 2010 were used&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib3">3</a> For any journal&#44; this table contains the total number of citations granted in the current year &#40;2010 in the illustration&#41; to articles published in that same year and in the nine preceding years&#46; <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl3">Table 3</a> reproduced and modified from ISI-THOMSON JCR refers to Journal &#8220;ISSN XXXX-X322&#8221; &#40;Impact Factor<span class="elsevierStyleInf">2010</span> &#61; 3&#46;20&#41;&#46; To the published data I have added one line for the number of citable items in every year&#44; also obtained from the same source&#44; and one for the corresponding average cites&#47;article for each year&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="tbl3"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="para310" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Three imaginary papers &#8220;published&#8221; in this journal&#44; as shown in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl4">Table 4</a> were granted 3 citations each in 2010&#46; The three papers can be matched to the corresponding average values in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl3">Table 3</a> &#40;respectively 3&#46;88&#44; 3&#46;11&#44; and 1&#46;64 citations in 2010&#41; and their performance calculated as Observed&#47;Expected ratios&#46; Multiplied by the Journal&#39;s Impact Factor these ratios produce a corrected rating for each paper&#46; This would be&#44; per definition&#44; the Continuously Variable Rating for each of these three articles in 2010&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="tbl4"></elsevierMultimedia></span><span id="cesec40" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="cestitle80">DISCUSSION</span><p id="para320" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">This digression relates to the manner in which scientific production is rated by many educational or grant distributing agencies which use the Impact Factor as a surrogate measure for the citation potential of articles published therein&#46; This policy contradicts common sense and ignores the very well-known Garfield recommendation on the subject&#58;</p><p id="para330" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">&#8220;The use of journal impact factors instead of actual article citation counts to evaluate individuals is a highly controversial issue&#46; Granting and other policy agencies often wish to bypass the work involved in obtaining actual citation counts for individual articles and authors&#46; &#8230; Thus&#44; the impact factor is used to estimate the expected influence of individual papers&#44; which is rather dubious considering the known skewness observed for most journals&#46;&#8221;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib1">1</a></p><p id="para340" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Maybe it would not be inappropriate to add here that after examining circa 60 journals &#40;approximately 8&#44;000 articles&#41; with Impact Factors ranging from 1&#46;3 to 55&#46;0 I still have not encountered a single journal which does not very approximately follow a 50&#47;20 distribution&#58; 50&#37; of citations come from the top 20&#37; articles&#44; 20&#37; come from the 50&#37; less cited items&#46; This is obviously reminiscent of the Pareto rule &#40;also known as the 80&#47;20 rule &#8211; 80&#37; of actions come from 20&#37; of agents&#41;&#46; <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig3">Figure 3B</a> represents the expanded Pareto distribution&#44; which is a power law probability distribution&#44; comprising a family of curves which are a function of K&#46; Journal citations conform to the Pareto cumulative distribution function for k &#8764;2&#46;</p><p id="para350" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Generally used justifications for the &#8220;surrogate&#8221; policy are&#58; &#40;a&#41; the acceptance of a paper for publication by a high impact journal is an implied indicator of prestige and &#40;b&#41; recently published articles may not have had enough time to be cited&#44; so that journal impact factor is the only valid evaluation tool&#46;</p><p id="para360" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">There can be no question that acceptance of a paper by a prestigious journal &#40;and prestigious journals do have high impact factors &#8211; the two tend to go together&#41; must be taken into consideration in any evaluation process worth its salt&#46; However&#44; it is definitely not synonymous with citations as demonstrated&#44; by applying the concept of positive predictive value to the analysis&#46; It is appropriate to remember that PPV is also known as the precision rate of a test&#46; It is a critical measure of the performance of a diagnostic method&#44; as it measures the probability of a &#8220;positive result&#8221; be the reflex of the underlying condition being tested&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib2">2</a></p><p id="para370" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The second caveat alleged by supporters of the &#8220;surrogate&#8221; policy is that recently published papers cannot be properly evaluated&#46; No evidence has ever been produced to support this concept&#44; which has been qualitatively and quantitatively refuted elsewhere&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib1">1</a> I shall return to the point further along&#46;</p><p id="para380" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">PPV cannot be calculated for a single journal if defined as the proportion of articles with cites &#62;IF&#46; The result would be absurd because IF is an average and thus represents the central tendency of cites&#47;document&#47;year&#46; Even for a symmetrical distribution&#44; this incongruous PPV might never exceed 0&#46;5&#46; The asymmetrical condition of this particular distribution guarantees that less that 30&#37; of articles in any journal are cited in excess of its IF&#46; This in itself exposes the flawed characteristics of &#8220;surrogate&#8221; evaluation&#46;</p><p id="para390" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">In this study&#44; I calculated PPV within the framework of classification classes&#46; The best PPV is found for a top class &#40;such as the HIGH class in this article&#41;&#44; with no upper boundary&#46; Journals above the class cutoff limit will necessarily exhibit progressively higher PPVs&#46; Journals close to the cutoff point for this class will have low PPVs&#46; All False Positives will actually be upgraded articles which do not make the expected cites&#47;year&#46; Thus&#44; if an agency defines only one cutoff point it will create a system whereby publishing in a journal as close as possible to the cutoff is the most advantageous way of making the most of the system&#46; Publishing in such a journal will be presumably easier than publishing further up the scale and maximizes the authors&#39; chances of an upgrade&#46; Publishing in journals with a much higher impact than the cutoff point virtually ensures that the publication will not be a False Positive&#46; However&#44; in the immortal words of the bard&#44; &#8220;there needs no ghost&#44; my Lord&#44; come from his grave to tell us that&#8221;&#46;</p><p id="para400" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">But the really critical problems occur when we look at agencies which define two or more classification classes&#46; All but the highest class will necessarily have lower and upper boundaries&#44; such as the MID and LOW classes of this simulation&#46; PPVs are very low here&#46; False positives mainly comprise upgraded articles&#44; as a consequence of skewness&#46; However&#44; a substantial number of articles published in these journals are downgraded&#46; Thus the surrogate procedure is great for lowly cited&#44; but terrible for highly cited articles&#46; If this sounds bad&#44; it is definitely not all of the bad news&#46; Because of the known tendency of citation granters to favor citing top&#44; rather than not-quite-so-top journals&#44; downgraded articles are suffering a double penalty for their infelicitous choice of a journal&#46;</p><p id="para410" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">One might well inquire why such a system was ever put into practice&#46; The answer probably lies in the utter convenience of a procedure that allows the rating of a very large number of articles through a computer-generated software command&#46;</p><p id="para420" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The essential concept behind CVR can be simply stated&#58; how well does a paper published in any given journal perform in comparison to all other papers published in the same journal&#44; within the same time frame&#63;</p><p id="para430" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Such an analysis can be attempted through several of the available metrics&#44; such as Eigen Factor&#44; Scimago Journal Ranking&#44; or through simple citation readings&#46; For the sake of simplicity I have decided to use citations&#46; The described result&#44; to the best of my knowledge&#44; has never been spelt out in this detail&#44; so I termed it CONTINUOUSLY VARIABLE RATING&#46; When this procedure is adopted&#44; as in the example of <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl3">Table 3</a> and <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl4">4</a>&#44; a number of facts become immediately obvious&#58;<ul class="elsevierStyleList" id="celist30"><li class="elsevierStyleListItem" id="celistitem60"><span class="elsevierStyleLabel">1&#46;</span><p id="para440" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Granted Citations in themselves are not a good guide&#46; In the imaginary series of <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl4">Table 4</a>&#44; the three articles get identical numbers of citations&#44; but the corrected ratings show how differently they performed&#46;</p></li><li class="elsevierStyleListItem" id="celistitem70"><span class="elsevierStyleLabel">2&#46;</span><p id="para450" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Data relating to real papers can be collected from applications submitted to the rating agency&#59; all the examiner program requires is journal identification&#44; and the year of publication&#46;</p></li><li class="elsevierStyleListItem" id="celistitem80"><span class="elsevierStyleLabel">3&#46;</span><p id="para460" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Cites accorded to the paper in the year of evaluation can be retrieved from the appropriate source&#46;</p></li><li class="elsevierStyleListItem" id="celistitem90"><span class="elsevierStyleLabel">4&#46;</span><p id="para470" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The method is simple enough to be handled by a relatively unsophisticated arithmetical program and yields CVRs for each paper submitted to evaluation&#46; The entire system operates within the domain of rational numbers&#46;</p></li><li class="elsevierStyleListItem" id="celistitem100"><span class="elsevierStyleLabel">5&#46;</span><p id="para480" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">CVR is dynamic&#44; because it can be recalculated on a yearly basis&#44; subject to the practical limitation mentioned below&#46; An appropriate database can store such information and create a history for each published article&#46;</p></li><li class="elsevierStyleListItem" id="celistitem110"><span class="elsevierStyleLabel">6&#46;</span><p id="para490" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">CVR takes into account the IF of the journal where the article is published&#46; Articles with identical observed&#47;expected ratios published in journals with different IF will reflect such differences in their CVRs&#46;</p></li><li class="elsevierStyleListItem" id="celistitem120"><span class="elsevierStyleLabel">7&#46;</span><p id="para500" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Last&#44; but certainly not least&#44; VERY RECENTLY PUBLISHED PAPERS can be accurately evaluated&#46; I believe this will lay to rest the unsubstantiated claims of naysayers&#46;</p></li></ul></p><p id="para510" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">A final step might be for the agency to match corrected ratings to its standards&#46;</p><p id="para520" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">What if Imaginary &#35;1 paper had been published in a journal with an impact factor say 6&#46;4 &#40;twice higher&#41;&#46; Further&#44; what if it had harvested the same 3 cites it got where it was published&#46; What would its CVR be&#63; Obviously there is no mathematically exact answer to this question&#46; But because IFs are related to cites&#44; it would not be far-fetched to suppose that the corresponding &#8220;expected cites&#8221; should also grow by a factor of approximately &#8220;2&#8221;&#46; Consequently CVR<span class="elsevierStyleInf">new</span> of Imaginary &#35;1 paper would be<elsevierMultimedia ident="f30"></elsevierMultimedia></p><p id="para530" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">In other words&#44; duplication would cancel off in the &#8220;IF&#8221; and in the &#8220;expected&#8221; terms&#46; Consequently&#44; in this scenario&#44; CVR would be relatively independent of Impact Factor&#46; If this were to be the case &#40;and only a thorough simulation might determine this&#41;&#44; CVRs would be way ahead of the &#8220;surrogate&#8221; procedure in assessing published science&#46;</p><p id="para540" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">It may certainly be argued that by being published in a higher IF journal Imaginary &#35;1 would harvest more cites and that consequently its CVR would effectively grow&#46; But here we go into a truly wild speculative world&#46; Because no paper&#44; whether real or imaginary can be ethically published in two different journals&#44; all we can do is live with analogies&#46; The laws of nature mercifully dictate that one cannot run a control experiment on one&#39;s own life&#46;</p><p id="para550" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">A practical limitation is that half-life data change on a yearly basis&#44; even though the basic pattern remains fairly constant for any journal over the years&#46; A second limitation applies to journals in the Scimago-Scopus collection but not present in the ISI-JCR&#46; Citation rates in the two collections are virtually identical&#44; but data required for the calculation of CVR are not directly available in the SCIMAGO-SCOPUS site&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib6">6</a></p><p id="para560" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">In contrast with these limitations&#44; the gains to be reaped in terms of coherence and simplification are enormous&#46; CVR does away with the need of ranking journals&#44; a cumbersome and awkward process&#46; To illustrate this point suffice it to say that CAPES&#44; the Brazilian Federal Agency in charge of rating Brazilian Graduate Courses lists and ranks over 3&#44;000 journals for Medicine&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib7">7</a> Conversely&#44; because different Areas of Evaluation have different inherent citation properties&#44; any journal may be &#40;and often is&#41; rated differently in different Areas&#46;</p><p id="para570" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">For CONTINUOUSLY VARIABLE RATING to be adopted a fair amount of groundwork must be performed&#44; either directly by rating agencies&#44; or by commission to the rating institutions&#46; The final result however will be a fair&#44; rational and transparent rating system where the plague of excessive false negatives may be truly minimized&#46;</p><p id="para580" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">In summary a new evaluation system is proposed for published original research&#44; CONTINUOUSLY VARIABLE RATING&#44; which takes into account the citation potential of individual articles within the context of the periodical in which it is published and performance vis-&#224;-vis the ensemble of articles published in the same journal&#46; The system can be operated through totally dedicated relatively simple software&#46;</p></span></span>"
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        "resumen" => "<span id="ceabs10" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="cestitle10">OBJECTIVE&#58;</span><p id="spara100" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Impact Factors &#40;IF&#41; are widely used surrogates to evaluate single articles&#44; in spite of known shortcomings imposed by cite distribution skewness&#46; We quantify this asymmetry and propose a simple computer-based procedure for evaluating individual articles&#46;</p></span> <span id="ceabs20" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="cestitle20">METHOD&#58;</span><p id="spara110" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">&#40;a&#41; <span class="elsevierStyleUnderline">Analysis of symmetry</span>&#46; Journals clustered around nine Impact Factor points were selected from the medical &#8220;Subject Categories&#8221; in Journal Citation Reports 2010&#46; Citable items published in 2008 were retrieved and ranked by granted citations over the Jan&#47;2008 - Jun&#47;2011 period&#46; Frequency distribution of cites&#44; normalized cumulative cites and absolute cites&#47;decile were determined for each journal cluster&#46; &#40;b&#41; <span class="elsevierStyleUnderline">Positive Predictive Value</span>&#46; Three arbitrarily established evaluation classes were generated&#58; LOW &#40;1&#46;3&#8804;IF&#60;2&#46;6&#41;&#59; MID&#58; &#40;2&#46;6&#8804;IF&#60;3&#46;9&#41;&#59; HIGH&#58; &#40;IF&#8805;3&#46;9&#41;&#46; <span class="elsevierStyleUnderline">Positive Predictive Value</span> for journal clusters within each class range was estimated&#46; &#40;c&#41; <span class="elsevierStyleUnderline">Continuously Variable Rating</span>&#46; An alternative evaluation procedure is proposed to allow the rating of individually published articles in comparison to all articles published in the same journal within the same year of publication&#46; The general guiding lines for the construction of a totally dedicated software program are delineated&#46;</p></span> <span id="ceabs30" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="cestitle30">RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS&#58;</span><p id="spara120" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Skewness followed the Pareto Distribution for &#40;1</p></span>"
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          "en" => "<p id="spara10" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Content of and mean Impact Factor &#40;IF&#41; of nine clusters containing 60 journals&#46; Major clusters M1 and M2 are centrally placed with respect to groups LOW and MID&#44; M3 adequately above the lower limit of group HIGH&#46; Minor clusters C1&#44; C2&#44; C3 mark the limits of groups&#44; whereas C4&#44; C5 and C6 cover higher IF levels&#46; In each cluster&#44; &#8220;n&#8221; represents the number of included journals&#46;</p>"
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          "en" => "<p id="spara20" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Frequency distribution of articles according to cites&#47;year&#58; Groups LOW&#44; MID and HI&#46;</p>"
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          "en" => "<p id="spara30" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">&#40;A&#41; Normalized cumulative frequency distribution of granted citations to articles in the three major clusters &#40;HIGH&#44; MID and LOW&#41;&#44; and for the New England Journal Medicine &#40;NEJM&#41;&#46; The &#8220;New England Journal of Medicine&#8221; exhibits significantly higher values &#40;p&#60;0&#46;01&#41; for deciles 10 to 50&#46; &#40;B&#41; Pareto cumulative distribution functions for various &#8220;k&#8221;&#46;</p>"
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        "identificador" => "fig4"
        "etiqueta" => "Figure 4"
        "tipo" => "MULTIMEDIAFIGURA"
        "mostrarFloat" => true
        "mostrarDisplay" => false
        "figura" => array:1 [
          0 => array:4 [
            "imagen" => "gr4.jpeg"
            "Alto" => 456
            "Ancho" => 682
            "Tamanyo" => 26257
          ]
        ]
        "descripcion" => array:1 [
          "en" => "<p id="spara40" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Probability density functions for granted citations&#47;year in the three major clusters &#40;HIGH&#44; MID and LOW&#41;&#46; Density is a highly significant &#40;p&#60;0&#46;001&#41; function of Impact Factor&#46;</p>"
        ]
      ]
      4 => array:7 [
        "identificador" => "fig5"
        "etiqueta" => "Figure 5"
        "tipo" => "MULTIMEDIAFIGURA"
        "mostrarFloat" => true
        "mostrarDisplay" => false
        "figura" => array:1 [
          0 => array:4 [
            "imagen" => "gr5.jpeg"
            "Alto" => 238
            "Ancho" => 478
            "Tamanyo" => 17060
          ]
        ]
        "descripcion" => array:1 [
          "en" => "<p id="spara50" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Average Positive Predictive Value &#40;PPV&#41; for 8&#44;273 articles published in 60 journals divided into nine Impact Factor clusters &#40;classes LOW&#44; MID&#44; HIGH&#41;&#46; Boundary clusters are repeated in each class&#46; An article is deemed a &#8220;True Positive&#8221; if its cites&#47;year is within its class&#44; as a &#8220;False Positive&#39;&#39; if otherwise&#46; PPVs are extremely low &#40;23-27&#37;&#41; in all clusters of the &#8220;LOW&#8221; and &#8220;MID&#8221; groups&#44; but rise progressively with IF in the HIGH group&#46;</p>"
        ]
      ]
      5 => array:7 [
        "identificador" => "tbl1"
        "etiqueta" => "Table 1"
        "tipo" => "MULTIMEDIATABLA"
        "mostrarFloat" => true
        "mostrarDisplay" => false
        "tabla" => array:1 [
          "tablatextoimagen" => array:1 [
            0 => array:1 [
              "tabla" => array:1 [
                0 => """
                  <table border="0" frame="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\tvoid\n
                  \t\t\t\t" class=""><thead title="thead"><tr title="table-row"><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" scope="col">Year&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top" scope="col">N &#61; 0&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top" scope="col">N &#61; -1&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top" scope="col">N &#61; -2&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top" scope="col">&#8230; N&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th></tr></thead><tbody title="tbody"><tr title="table-row"><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">Cites granted in Year Zero to articles published in Year &#8220;N&#8221;&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top">&#931;GC<span class="elsevierStyleInf">0</span>&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top">&#931;GC<span class="elsevierStyleInf">-1</span>&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top">&#931;GC<span class="elsevierStyleInf">-2</span>&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top">&#931;GC<span class="elsevierStyleInf">n</span>&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td></tr><tr title="table-row"><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">Number of articles published in Year &#8220;N&#8221;&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top">&#931;AA<span class="elsevierStyleInf">0</span>&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top">&#931;AA<span class="elsevierStyleInf">-1</span>&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top">&#931;AA<span class="elsevierStyleInf">-2</span>&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top">&#931;AA<span class="elsevierStyleInf">n</span>&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td></tr><tr title="table-row"><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">Cites&#47;Article granted in Year Zero&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">&#931;GC<span class="elsevierStyleInf">0</span>&#47;&#931;AA<span class="elsevierStyleInf">0</span>&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">&#931;GC<span class="elsevierStyleInf">-1</span>&#47;&#931;AA<span class="elsevierStyleInf">-1</span>&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">&#931;GC<span class="elsevierStyleInf">-2</span>&#47;&#931;AA<span class="elsevierStyleInf">-2</span>&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">&#931;GC<span class="elsevierStyleInf">n</span>&#47;&#931;AA<span class="elsevierStyleInf">n</span>&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td></tr></tbody></table>
                  """
              ]
            ]
          ]
        ]
        "descripcion" => array:1 [
          "en" => "<p id="spara60" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">A modified version of half-life tables from ISI Journal Citations Report&#46;</p>"
        ]
      ]
      6 => array:7 [
        "identificador" => "tbl2"
        "etiqueta" => "Table 2"
        "tipo" => "MULTIMEDIATABLA"
        "mostrarFloat" => true
        "mostrarDisplay" => false
        "tabla" => array:1 [
          "tablatextoimagen" => array:1 [
            0 => array:1 [
              "tabla" => array:1 [
                0 => """
                  <table border="0" frame="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\tvoid\n
                  \t\t\t\t" class=""><thead title="thead"><tr title="table-row"><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" scope="col">Group&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top" scope="col">Impact Factor 2010&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top" scope="col">cites&#47;yr&#40;2008-10&#41;&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top" scope="col">significance&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th></tr></thead><tbody title="tbody"><tr title="table-row"><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">LOW&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top">1&#46;84&#177;0&#46;10&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top">1&#46;92&#177;0&#46;34&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top">p&#62;0&#46;5&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td></tr><tr title="table-row"><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">MID&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top">3&#46;14&#177;0&#46;07&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top">3&#46;11&#177;0&#46;26&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top">p&#62;0&#46;6&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td></tr><tr title="table-row"><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">HIGH&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">4&#46;36&#177;0&#46;14&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">4&#46;35&#177;0&#46;36&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="center" valign="top" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">p&#62;0&#46;9&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td></tr></tbody></table>
                  """
              ]
            ]
          ]
        ]
        "descripcion" => array:1 [
          "en" => "<p id="spara70" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Average Impact Factor &#40;2010&#41; vs&#46; calculated cites&#47;year for 10 journals per group as defined in Figure 1&#46;</p>"
        ]
      ]
      7 => array:7 [
        "identificador" => "tbl3"
        "etiqueta" => "Table 3"
        "tipo" => "MULTIMEDIATABLA"
        "mostrarFloat" => true
        "mostrarDisplay" => false
        "tabla" => array:1 [
          "tablatextoimagen" => array:1 [
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              "tabla" => array:1 [
                0 => """
                  <table border="0" frame="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\tvoid\n
                  \t\t\t\t" class=""><thead title="thead"><tr title="table-row"><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" scope="col">year&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" scope="col">2010&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" scope="col">2009&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" scope="col">2008&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" scope="col">2007&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" scope="col">2006&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" scope="col">2005&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" scope="col">2004&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" scope="col">2003&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" scope="col">2002&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" scope="col">2001&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th></tr></thead><tbody title="tbody"><tr title="table-row"><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">cites in 2010&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">302&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">588&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">703&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">684&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">675&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">647&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">439&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">373&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">391&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">288&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td></tr><tr title="table-row"><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">&#35; articles&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">184&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">177&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">226&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">199&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">174&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">195&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">170&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">183&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">105&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top">164&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td></tr><tr title="table-row"><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">cites&#47;article&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">1&#46;64&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">3&#46;32&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">3&#46;11&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">3&#46;44&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="top" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">3&#46;88&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
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                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
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                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
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                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
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          "en" => "<p id="spara80" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Data derived from the Half-life table for Shock&#44; 2010 &#40;lines 1 &#38; 2&#41; to which lines 3 and 4 were added using data from the ISI JCR&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib1">1</a></p>"
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ISSN: 18075932
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