Accuracy of NVP score as a predictor of gastroesophageal varices in primary biliary cholangitis

Introduction and Objective

The presence of gastro-oesophageal varices (GOV) in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) denotes a poor prognosis and may precede jaundice and cirrhosis. The appropriate time to begin screening with oesphageo-gastro-duodenoscopy (OGD) is controversial. Recently, non-invasive tools such as GOV predictors in CBP, such as New Castle Varices PBC Score (NVP Score), are cost-effective. This study aimed to determine the accuracy of NVP Score as a predictive tool for GOV in PBC patients.

Materials and Methods

A Cross-sectional, retrospective, observational study of 47 PBV patients who underwent OGD as screening. NVP score was calculated and its accuracy, p-value and AUC were determined.

Results

47 patients were included; 43 (91.4%) were female, with a median age of 59 years. Initially, 70% of PBC patients had GOV. NVP Score was calculated, with a cut-off of 0.3, establishing sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 50%, PPV of 82.5% and NPV of 100%, p=0.05.

Discussion

GOV prevalence in our population study is high (70%) even in early disease stages due to the presinusoidal component of portal hypertension and other factors. This evidence shows the importance of early GOV diagnosis in PBC patients, using non-invasive tools as a cost-effective strategy.

Conclusions

NVP score is a useful non-invasive tool that accurately predicts the presence of GOV in PBC patients.

Funding

The resources used in this study were from the hospital without any additional financing

Declaration of interest

The authors declare no potential conflicts of interest.

Fig. 1. ROC Curve of the NVP Score